SPARC state and local government revenue projection tool
Download the revenue projection tool >>> (Microsoft Excel version 2007 or later needs to be used to open this tool.)
About this tool
Many state and local governments rely on transfers from the Federal Allocation Accounts Committee (FAAC) for their recurrent revenue. More specifically, statutory allocation and value added tax (VAT) (and excess crude) make up a significant part of the revenue budget. Within the context of budget realism, it is important that estimates for these revenues are based on all available information/data and use rigorous forecasting techniques.
The revenue projection tool, developed by SPARC based on its experience in 10 states, uses the basic principles of forecasting (moving averages and elasticities) with a set of historical data from the FAAC pack to forecast the revenues which will accrue into the FAAC for a given macroeconomic (oil) scenario. The tool then uses the sharing ratios to estimate the individual allocation for any state or local government in Nigeria.
The tool also allows users to forecast their internally generated revenue (IGR) based on several types of moving average.
Finally the tool allows for these estimates to be plotted on a bar graph.
The tool can be used by any stakeholder in the public financial management (PFM) system – government officers, civil society, private sector, donors and aid agencies. It should be used as a 'reference point' and should support, but not be used instead of, a rigorous top-down budget process.